This Week's Expert Blog Post

October 5, 2026

I think if I had entered the quantum industry in the past three years, I would be marveling at the accelerating progress.  But having been deeply involved in the industry for more than seven years, I have to confess to a little quantum “promise” fatigue. 

Some of this has to do with the early claims that the commercial benefits of quantum were just around the corner - none of them turned out to be true. Fortunately, the industry pulled back on these unsupported claims when a short-seller with its own agenda attacked one quantum company’s claims with a brutal 100-page plus takedown. Much of the report was inaccurate or misleading, but the impact was felt throughout the industry anyway – executives started pulling back on promises of near-term quantum benefit. 

The other reality check for me is understanding just how difficult this technology is. Every time one engineering summit is successfully reached – whether it’s meeting the error correction threshold, or critical gate fidelities or logical qubits – seemingly another mountain range appears.  These other challenges include scaling error correction over thousands if not millions of qubits; engineering scalable readout, control and cryo systems; developing algorithms and applications that will be useful with fault-tolerant systems; ensuring system integration with HPC centers; enabling distributed networks; and more. 

Then there are additional issues of quantum-inspired classical systems potentially competing with projected quantum advantages for certain problems, as well as the theorized but unproven qubit limits of quantum computers proposed by an Oxford professor. 

So, after all these years and all the current advancements, the question that still hangs over the industry is: Will quantum be like the 1969 moon landing where all challenges are miraculously overcome through human ingenuity, investment and sheer will in a few years’ time, or could it become more like nuclear fusion and become a perennial technology of the future? 

Fortunately, I recently attended the Quantum World Congress (QWC) at the University of Maryland and noted these points of light (I avoided company names because some might be considered a conflict of interest): 

• Hardware companies are steadily moving toward fault-tolerant systems, and at least one appears to be methodically knocking down each and every obstacle in the industry’s way – with detailed proof of its achievements. 
• Building real-world applications in preparation for fault-tolerant systems is finally being seriously investigated and there are innovative companies making AI-powered tools that will enable non-quantum-savvy software developers to dream and create quantum software to their heart’s content. My prediction (and of course many others share it) is that this area will dominate the conversation at future shows next year and beyond. 
• Investment in much-needed HPC infrastructure integration by private enterprise and governments is moving forward at pace – now we just need to see more quantum machines actually installed and working with classical systems. 
• The Western democracies continue to support quantum R&D across countries.  At QWC, Dario Gil of the U.S. Department of Energy showed that the U.S is throwing its hat over the wall of quantum by challenging the industry to demonstrate a scientifically relevant system by 2028. This pairs nicely with the published roadmaps by many in the industry of commercial systems by 2029 or the early 2030s. 

I definitely hope to see quantum’s beneficial impacts over the next few years. Thanks to the organizers of QWC and another superb show, I now consider my momentary lapse as a needed reflection before the industry makes its final ascent. 

But as someone noted at the show, quantum still faces a difficult climb before it will make problems easy to solve. 

I am looking forward to hearing more about the latest industry advancements at two upcoming shows – Q+AI in New York this Oct. 25-27 where I will be joining a panel discussion of quantum PR – and the World Quantum Cannes Festival in France Nov. 17-18 that HKA is promoting and where we are speaking and exhibiting as well. 

Hope to see you at either or both! 

By Mike Kilroy